Aydın Çubukçu: Afrin alliance will only benefit Erdoğan

There are two influential actors in Afrin: Russia and the US. Their approaches were being discussed. Where do you think these two countries stand right now in terms of their position?

Undoubtedly the two big countries knew sooner or later Turkey would carry out such an operation. Hence they are not surprised. I think they have made their calculations knowing this possibility in the first place. The future of Syria is a point of contention for both countries. As you know, the US wanted a moderate Islamic regime without Assad and directly under the control of the West. With Russia actively engaged in the process, it has become clear that a solution without Assad was not very possible. The importance of Syria for Russia is clear: it is an area that is irreplaceable historically, geographically and politically. Therefore, when evaluating the current operation, it appears that the US is further back in terms of achieving its own goals. So the US neither supported nor opposed Turkey’s operational initiative in Syria but instead requested it to be time-bound and geographically limited.

‘It appears that Turkey has an agreement with Russia over Afrin’

For Russia what is actually important is not Afrin but Idlib and the region further down. Here I think there is an agreement between Russia and Turkey as to the future of the region once Afrin is out of Kurdish control. That is to say, Russia is aiming an Afrin that is under the control of the Syrian regime. Therefore, there is a parallel between Russia’s stance at the moment and Assad previously declaring the Kurdish movement as terrorist. Thus, Turkey felt its hands were untied. Beyond the inner propaganda, there were enough reasons to see this operation possible without many confrontations from external powers.

Who does the the politics of AKP government in Syria benefit?

‘US AND RUSSIAN APPROACH COULD CHANGE IF THE OPERATION DRAGS’

It is said that Russia’s ultimate goal is to transfer Afrin to the Syrian regime. Can the process evolve in this direction?

The aims are as such… It is important how much the Kurdish movement in Afrin can resist militarily. If the process is too long, the attitude of Russia could change. US position could change too. Therefore, the present decisions may change in the coming days. Russia’s current aim is to hand Afrin and Northern Syria to Assad’s control. It is important to recognise that Assad is in a very strong position.To obtain the control of Afrin means to have the control of the whole area, including Idlib, Aleppo, Damascus, etc.

EMEP: Fraternity of peoples is bombed in Afrin

‘DEMOCRATIC UNION PARTY (PYD) HAS NO CLAIM OVER TURKEY’

While the negotiations were on between the Turkish government and the Kurds, i.e. when there were various contacts through some MPs between Ankara and Imrali (where the imprisoned Kurdish leader Abdullah Ocalan is held), we know that there was also communication with the PYD co-Chair Salih Muslim regarding the region of Rojava. These have been published in the press. But now a Kurdish enclave in that region has been declared to be a threat and the approach to PYD is determined by a new discourse. So, is there really a threat against Turkey from Northern Kurdish region of Syria?

No, there isn’t. So, there may be a connection between PKK’s operations within Turkey and PYD’s existence in that region only in that both sides are known to be affiliated to Öcalan’s ideology. However, they are not two organisations fighting for the same purpose. PYD’s aim is limited to establishing an autonomous Kurdish region in the area. They have no claim over Turkey. But PKK has. PKK has set some political objectives and is acting upon them. However, there are no concrete document or information that PYD has made such plans.

Undoubtedly PKK supports the PYD both militarily and politically. However, in terms of their objectives, they are two separate organisations. We know that PYD does not want to create any problems with Turkey. In fact, the aim to hold an autonomous region and fighting with Turkey contradict one another. They knew this and therefore through peace talks, without taking up any issues with Turkey, they were trying to materialise this aim. Salih Muslim’s communications were based on this fact. In other words, they had convinced Turkey that the existence of Kurds in that region was not a threat to Turkey. However, this situation is no longer the case, for Turkey that chapter is over.

Afrin Operation is an offence on the whole region

‘ERDOGAN IS THE ONLY ONE TO BENEFIT FROM THIS ALLIANCE’

Before and after the operation, there began a process of curbing freedoms, which were already limited. A briefing given by the government to newspapers is no different from censorship arrangements. On the other hand, Istanbul Public Prosecutor’s Office has said that all news items are being scrutinized. Individuals protesting the military operation on social media are being prosecuted. How do you see these developments?

In general, a concept of 'national war' has been put forward and all political parties, the whole press, have acted upon it under the influence of this national war propaganda. Republican People’s Party (CHP) leader has declared that he agrees with this definition that “It is a national war.” It is being directly referred as Turkish Armed Forces’ (TSK) operation and not AKP’s. The headlines of all newspapers conform with this.Even pro- CHP press, which we may consider as opponents, call this as an ‘operation of the TSK. In other words, they have united in defining this operation directly as a national war by keeping AKP out of this.

We can mention a basic alliance here, the axis of which formed by TayyipErdoğan’s politics, and all the reactionary forces of Turkey have united around it. This alliance will undoubtedly continue as long as the war goes on and the AKP and the presidential system will win the most from this. Tayyip Erdogan himself is the only power to take advantage of the fact that such a 'national' atmosphere was created when heading to the 2019 elections.

The CHP cannot see this.But the real opposition forces are aware of this. There is also the real opposition to its press and party bulletins but their voices are very weak, restricted and prohibited. It requires a hefty price to pay in order to make a press release. In this case, there is no doubt that there is an investment for the upcoming elections. In other words, it was a very effective base for the upcoming general elections and presidential elections for which an alliance has been formed whereby some has joined willingly some not so willingly. (EVRENSEL DAILY)