Meltem AKYOL
Istanbul

Earthquake in Izmir reminded the expected Istanbul earthquake. According to the surveys, at least 100 thousand buildings face the risk of collapse.  This means 600 thousand apartments. In those apartments live approximately 2 million people. Head of the Department of Earthquake Risk Management and City Redevelopment at Municipality of Greater Istanbul Area (MGI), Tayfun Kahraman, after providing the numbers, said "I dare to comment any further." In order for Istanbul to be a safe city in face of an earthquake, the amount of money to be spent is 485 billion TL.  This is equivalent to MGI's budget for 20 years. While this reality is out in the open, to ask it plainly: Is Istanbul ready for an earthquake? We talked to Tayfun Kahraman about their ongoing work and the issues they face.

At the start of March, we had talked about earthquake. It's been almost a year. What is the status of your work?

We took steps to reattempt to carry out the Earthquake Master Plan prepared by the joint effort of Municipality of Greater Istanbul, Bogazici University, Yildiz Technical University and Middle East Technical University.  We first took up the building surveys on July 23. In order of priority, we determined the buildings built before the year 2000, because such buildings had been built per old building code. Out of 1 million 166 thousand buildings in Istanbul, 790 thousand have been built before the year 2000. We have been analysing these 790 thousand buildings using fast survey techniques. Our purpose is to identify the buildings at the greatest risk, in other words, to determine the cavities in Istanbul's teeth.

How is the situation you faced with?

According to the report conducted on the survey for loss estimates before our administration, there was supposed to be 48 thousand buildings at risk. When we started the field work, we reached to a four times bigger number. It is anticipated that 194 thousand buildings in Istanbul will incur losses at mid and higher ranges. For example, in Avcilar, the percentage of the buildings anticipated to incur losses at mid and higher levels was 10%, per estimation studies. However, the result of the analysis done through our building by building surveys is 40%. In other words, the 40% of the buildings in Avcilar are those to incur  losses at mid and higher levels. Of course, this won't be the same everywhere as that in Avcilar, some zones will perhaps survive with less losses than estimated.

Again, per estimates, at least 100 thousand buildings in Istanbul are face to face with the risk of collapse. Watch, it is not the number of apartments, of the buildings. 100 thousand buildings mean 600 thousand apartments. Close to 2 millions of our people live in those 600 thousand apartments. I dare to comment any further.

How accurate is the data that you obtained through this survey technique?

We have a board of science of widely inclusive of doyen individuals, we worked with this team. We converged to a 98% accuracy in core sampling method known as primary building survey system, also defined in the Earthquake Regulations bylaw. This is a pretty exact ratio. We submitted to the ministry the scientific reports related to how our system works and its ratio.

THERE ARE BUILDINGS AT RISK THAT QUALIFIED FOR 'ZONING ACCORD'

You identified Avcilar and Silivri as pilot zones, and started the operations. Which phase are you in, right now?

At the moment, there are 100 teams each comprised of two people working in Avcilar and Silivri. One team member is directly entering the data into geographic data and our registration system. One team is able to process 6 buildings a day, in other words, we are at the capacity of taking up 600 buildings a day. The work in Avcilar and Silivri will be finalized in January or February, in doing so, the survey of 32 thousand buildings will have been complete. After that, we will begin the work in four other municipalities, and our target is to complete the surveys of 13 municipalities at the end of 2021. This is almost half of Istanbul. Our priority is the zones with intensified risk.

We face with variety of issues. In Avcilar, 10% of the citizens have not allowed us to enter into their buildings, in Silivri, this ratio is 20%. They think that we will intervene with the status of the building. However, Istanbulites need to know that we in fact conduct a survey at the moment. Once we have done that, we will then decide on how and what to do together.

During Izmir earthquake, we witnessed also the collapse of the buildings qualified for 'Zoning Accord', Istanbul is the city where the applications for 'Zoning Accord' were filed the most. What kind of data do you have in this context?

Unfortunately, we don't have any data. Despite we inquired for it with the ministry numerous times, the data have not yet been shared with us. In Avcilar and Silivri, we have seen the buildings being evaluated as at risk, but having been qualified for 'Zoning Accord.'

FOR NOW, THERE ARE AREAS FOR USE DURING EARTHQUAKE IN TWO MUNICIPALITIES, THEY WILL BE CONSTRUCTED IN 39 MUNICIPALITIES

Arguments on earthquake shelter areas and temporary shelters still continue. What was done with regards to them?

Istanbulites call us and say 'you have identified the graveyards as earthquake shelter zones.' Yes, this is correct, because the areas you call shelter zones are the zones to be used the most within 72 hours after disaster. In this process, a general coordination will be done, the habitat is to settle down. Then, those whose buildings are not affected will return to their homes, but those whose buildings are identified as at mid and higher loss will be moved to the temporary shelters.

We carried out two earthquake shelter areas, one in Topkapi, the other in Atasehir Deniz Gezmis Park. These areas can be used today, and can be very quickly turned into temporary shelters with complete infrastructure right after a disaster. For example, the areas used for  benches in daily life right now, turn to storage units. All lighting systems, in case of no hydro, are updated to work with solar energy. In these areas, the locations of shelter tents have been determined, and their water and electric installations have been done.

We have a program to extend such earthquake parks to 39 municipalities. Our projections in Avcilar and Silivri are ongoing.

Our work on a mobile application is also ongoing. Once people download this application, they will be able to communicate with the shelter areas. We have a work ongoing to establish all these offline in case Internet is unavailable.

THEY ANNOUNCED AN EMPTY ZONE AS AT RISK, NOT THE SLEAZY BUILDINGS  IN ELMALIKENT

In the meantime, in Istanbul Bagcilar, we heard that a 55 acre empty field was declared to be at risk. What is with this field, is there any other such fields?

The area in Bagcilar was first declared to be at risk,  the court lifted the declaration when some citizens filed an opposition. Now, the ministry insists on its declaration. 

There are 20 areas declared as at risk in greater Istanbul, the accountability on some of those  had been turned over to us. An example, following the earthquake in Izmir, is the area declared as at risk in Elmalikent in Umraniye. In there, there are many areas at risk, however the declared area of Elmalikent is with the least density of risk, it is an empty field. The ministry declared the empty area as at risk, but not the buildings immediately next to the area -please take time to go and see, the main risk is there-.

WE NEED A DETAILED STATUE CHANGE

Why?

Well, most probably, a project will be taken up in that area, and the advantages, provided by the Act of 6306 for Transformation of Areas at Risk of a Disaster, will be utilized. From fee exemptions to settlement management, to resolution of property right issues easily, there are advantages this act grants to the government.

We have to focus on the main question. As of now, the Act of 6306 has not produced a result focusing on the question.  It did manage the saddle transformation of the buildings in Bagdat Street, downtown, for these facilitations particularly favoured the areas that had value-add capacity in the centre; however it has not produced a solution for the areas possessing the main problem. For this reason, we need a very detailed statue changes. We are preparing to submit these changes to the ministry.

DESPITE THE HUGE COST ISSUE, INSISTENCE ON CANAL ISTANBUL IS INCOMPREHENSIBLE

How much of a budget is necessary for all these projects? Has the budget issue been resolved?

We come up with a number like 485 Billion TL, however Mr. Mayor foresees this number  to reach about 600 billion TL. This amount is the 20 year budget of Municipality of Greater Istanbul. This can be afforded by neither the government nor the municipality. Because of this, we propose a system where we are guarantor, and involve the banking and insurance sectors.

There is the reality that low income group, or poor people live in the buildings at risk with the worst condition.  In other words, mainly the poor people of Istanbul are facing this threat. Our mission is that, in all these projects, the healthy buildings are delivered to the citizens with installations under minimum wage.

While such a huge cost is deliberated, insisting on Canal Istanbul project, that has more harm than good, [ The canal in European side that is to connect the Black Sea with Marmara Sea ] is incomprehensible, specifically under the ever weighting economic condition together with the pandemic conditions... Instead of creating funding sources for such projects, we'd better focus on the real problems of Istanbul. Izmir earthquake reminded us that in the most burning manner.