Bulent FALAKAOĞLU
Hakkı ÖZDAL

INTRODUCTION

Is it not settling for that of 100 years ago?..

Strategic depth in the Middle-East…

Active foreign policy…

To be a game setter in the region!

These used to be the foreign policy mottos of  AKP government. They were agitating for pursuing a different foreign policy than before, one not settling for the given, demanding more.

Government had been claiming that its foreign policy of imperialist ambitions was for the national interests.

With his remarks “we cannot move forward with the psychology of 1923,” President Erdogan was further initiating a dispute on the 100 year old borders set by the national pact. He was emphasizing that the borders covering also Mosul and Kirkuk had been lost in the aftermath of Lausanne Treaty.

“They offered us the Sèvres in 1920, then they reconciled us to the Lausanne. They tried to deceive us that the Lausanne was a victory...”   In the continuation of these statements, demonstrating his expansion ambitions included not just the East (Iraq Kurdistan), not only the South (Syria), but also the West, the following sentences were lined up:

“Now, at the moment, you see the Aegean Sea, don’t you? We gave away the islands that, if you shouted, your voice would be heard from, at Lausanne. Is the victory this? They were ours. We are negotiating these, what will be the Aegean Sea continental shelf, what will it be in the skies, at sea; we are still waging the struggle for these. Why? It is because of those sat on the table of that treaty negotiations. Those sat on the table did not demand the fair share on the treaty.”

These theses used to be often agitated in different forms by AKP leaders, the spoke persons (including media). Mentioning that everything has changed in the world since the establishment of the Republic, it used to be emphasized that what was settled 100 years ago could not be reconciled with today.

Alright, what is the result?

Turkey is a country dependent on the Western system led by USA, since the end of the World War II.

AKP whose founding process we summarized in the first section, on the other hand, is a party that had confirmed, right from the beginning, that it could not have left the Western system; and provided a guarantee that the policy that it would have followed would have been in compliant with the USA interests.

These concepts, together with AKP, indicate a continuation of, not a change in the policy.

If so... What would we make of the attempts that seem to be in conflict in the foreign policy with NATO and the USA? Has AKP changed course as it got stronger in power?

Before taking up the accomplishments and their consequences, the following can be said: AKP follows not the tactics of a radical breaking-away but of making use of opportunities.

Two big earthquakes shaking the world balances seemingly presented “opportunities”;  and AKP government seemed not to miss on those opportunities.

Of those earthquakes, the first was the economic crisis of 2008; it was an earthquake undermining the whole political system.

It was as big an earthquake as the first one that the war, started in Syria in 2011, developed into an international war.

Just as the tectonic fractures in an earthquake, the after shakes of both of these quakes were observed throughout the world.

Treating the 2008 global crisis, that we alluded to as the first quake, as an opportunity to pave the way for the capital flow (including illegal ones) under the abundance of cash, the AKP government tried to make use of the aftermath of the second quake, Syrian war, as an opportunity to capture a share by extending its arm to every region of crisis.

***

Now also...

Let us look into the government’s ‘most effective’ practices seeming to form the image that ‘it moves in conflict with and independently of the West’ and also... the outcomes of those steps taken (putting aside the argument whether they are ever related to the national interest or not)!

The first of the steps that we can call ‘the government tried the strategic autonomy’ was the operation ‘Peace Spring’ directed towards Syria. This operation seemed to be different than other operations conducted in Syria; the prior operations Euphrates Shield and Olive Branch  had been carried out in the west side of Euphrates in the region that the USA had left for Turkey.

However he strategic autonomy of the operation Peace Spring, which had targeted a 400 km line from Menbich to the Iraq border, stayed limited at the 120 km portion that the USA had determined.

The second was the Blue Motherland doctrine and the treaty of restricting maritime jurisdiction zones made with Sarraj government in Libya as an extension of that doctrine...

The first one could be advertised as a ‘limited success’ even if the USA had drawn its limits. But the life span of the Blue Motherland had been very short and it had been shelved. The Oruc Reis and Barbaros ships, conducting search in Mediterranean, had been drawn back to the harbour. An unreserved dialogue process with Greece had been accepted.

The third strategic autonomy attempt (Acquiring S-400 rocket system from Russia) simply backfired. Despite the consequences such as the payments of billions of dollars and  the dismissal from F-35 project, it remained as a procurement that could not be taken out of its package!

THE OUTCOME IS NOT JUST A FAILURE!

The strategic autonomy, that started with an ambition to occupy the locations the USA had started to evacuate, as a regional power, had bumped into walls everywhere.  It got hit by  the forces such as Saudi Arabia , the Gulf Countries, Egypt, and Iran; and it got perished.

The AKP government’s tactic that eased the way for Russia to come down to Syria has now left Turkey vulnerable against both the USA and Russia.

The government is simply fluttering to overcome its loneliness in the Middle-East; it is attempting to remedy the situation with Egypt, Israel, Saudi Arabia. The government, that agitated the electors with that its loss in election in the greater cities would mean the gain of the Egypt dictator el-Sisi, is looking for a compromise by turning its back to Moslem Brothers.

The government has given up on the claims of ownership of the natural gas zones in the East Mediterranean, and of the independent politics. It was pushed out of the game from being a game setter. Settling for active cooperation in Black Sea, it conceded to be an important part of the USA strategy everywhere.

The government, that was once cocky, and claiming to be the master of the region, is now looking for ways to become ‘a useful ally’ for the USA. The moves of offering ‘soldiers and economic privileges’ to get political safe-guards from the USA in return are coming one after another.

However... the following rule in international relations is working viciously: the impotency brings about withdrawal and concession.

And unfortunately...

The exertions, of the government to overcome its loneliness by backpedalling, at a time coinciding with the economic and political capital of the government being the most vulnerable, are elevating its risks of capitulating greater concessions from national interest.

With the well put summary of Aydin Selcen, a foreign policy writer: Instead of shaking hands at the right time, it is pity to be in a position to cringe, by falling behind.

The strategic autonomy was averted, at the end of the day, into a kind of strategic weakness. Just as the illusion of ‘Ottoman is being born from its ashes,’ being possessed with the illusion of ‘we are becoming a world power’ also pinned the dependence on imperialism.

BITING OFF MORE THAN ONE CAN CHEW WITH THE GREED OF CAPITAL

The strategic autonomy of Turkey, whose economy is dependent on the flow of international capital, as an ally of the West and a NATO country, was, right from the start, hitting the walls of the following borders:

Economical size

Military capacity

Political potency.

Although it seems as an adventure to expand ‘the strategy’ before scoring a certain improvement and development... the intend of the government was in fact to meet the demand from the sections of capital it represented (besides, it is not independent of this that the imperialist ambitions are to leverage the dictatorship politics internally).

With the ‘disclosures,’ it is nowadays becoming more visible reality that the discourses on the interference in Syria and Libya over ‘national interests’ had been to cover up the tenders there behind close doors, appropriating and divvying up their resources.

Because of this,

Even if the economic, military and political capacity were enough for those done that have hit the walls, the following question would have still kept its livelihood: Are those done really in the interest of the regional peoples?

THE SHARE OF THE AMBITIONS TO DIVVY UP : CIRCLE OF WAR AND CALAMITY FOR PEOPLES

It was the tactic of Erdogan government and Cumhur Alliance to try to profit from market-dominance struggles amongst and to negotiate with imperialists by making use of the conflicts amongst them.

Per the requirement of the tactic, it was being tried to sit in two chairs both in both America and Russia ‘game.’ It is possible to observe this position of the government also in the Montreux Convention arguments that it maintained. The government is trying to expand its operation zone and to overcome its stuck position by marketing its rights originating from the Montreux Convention to both the USA and Russia.

However, as a result, this policy has turned the country’s land and sea borders in four directions into hot tension zones. Turkey is surrounded by the fire of divvying up and dominance struggles of the imperialists, the USA and Russia at the head, and the reactionary-dependent regional countries!

This policy, serving for hot conflicts and warmongering, also serves for the interests of imperialists. The government’s seeking to capture a share from these partition struggles is serving nothing but for making the peoples of Turkey and the region enemies of each other and for creating trouble for them.

The economic burden of the tactic is also heavy.

Multibillion dollar rockets will be ruined in their package. The search ships worth tons of money will be kept in side ports. Weapons and money will be sent to those with the proxies etc.

More over...

With the steps taken to re-shape the balance of power in the imperialist system, the two chairs the government is trying to sit in are diverting from each other. This diversion, dragging it impossible to manage both sides, is forcing an urgent choice to be made. The urgent choice obliged to be made is dragging the government to a point to make concessions over concessions.