Closing the account of ambassador crisis started with Kavala announcement of 10 countries

Exploded by the announcement of the Ankara ambassadors of ten countries, demanding the release of Osman Kavala, and escalated by the president Erdogan’s counter announcement to declare the ambassadors as persona non grata, the crisis has ended with a strange resolution. The USA being the leading country organizing the announcement, how should it be perceived that it confirmed its compliance with Article 41 of the Vienna Convention, and that other countries followed the same course?

The news headings of the western press apprised that Erdogan took a step back. The press in Turkey has been divided into two: While the press close to the government gave the good news of Erdogan’s victory, the opposition press,  disappointed with the position of the West, partially agrees with that the West has taken a step back. However, the rest of the opposition press and some media outlets supporting the government allege that the West has not taken a step back, on the contrary, they gave Erdogan the option to silently back down. Since this is an issue of public diplomacy (or propaganda), it is very crucial what perceptions are and will get formed in the public opinion, following the behaviour conducted and the announcements and counter announcements made in return.

What was the outcome expected of the shared announcement of the ambassadors? Those countries involved could have conveyed to Erdogan their position related to Kavala, using more private channels. They did not choose to do so. They sought to let the whole world hear that they demanded from Turkey that she be committed to the human rights and independent judiciary. In this context, we can assert that the announcement has fully achieved the outcome. Facing with the announcement, there were two options before Erdogan: to stomach the tension or to escalate it. The first option would not be viable, because it would lead Erdogan’s leadership to go into -for lack of a better term- a coma as the room for his maneuver in economy, domestic and foreign politics had been narrowing down. At the same time, such a stand would mean the total loss of control of his leadership as the disclosures of regrets from the state bureaucracy and party cadres have already started. It would be the most proper step to take to elevate the tension with the threat of declaring the ambassadors as persona non grata. As such, Erdogan got the initiative in the crisis and he could attain a damage control in the least.

Some opposition commentators prated that the ten countries, the USA at the head, had not still comprehended Erdogan’s behaviour in the crisis. According to their view, the West had still lightly taken Erdogan’s potential to escalate the crisis by breaking all ties, and they took a step back when they observed that the relations came to a break point. Even if this view, at the first glance, seems to be convincing, it does not add up at all when it is considered together with the previous crises. The diplomatic initiative behind the announcement must have assessed the possible reactions Erdogan might have, in the light of previous experiences, and done some risk analysis. It must have taken into consideration the vulnerabilities of the economy and the foreign policy of Turkey, the deadlocks of Erdogan regime, and Erdogan’s stands in previous crises. In the final analysis, the announcement is not an issue related only to Erdogan or Turkey, it is an issue of how the western alliance will stick together, and how it will go on. This process is being monitored by not  only Russia and China, but also by the countries that are the members of the alliance and experience similar issues related to human rights. Therefore, it would be a naive assessment that the West is naive towards Erdogan.

In that case, what does it mean to be in commitment to Article 41 of the Vienna Convention (that is the principle of not interfering in internal affairs)? A commentator close to the opposition read this message as that the USA apologized, in an undertone, to Turkey for interfering in her internal affairs. However, it would also be possible to assess the message as the first announcement was in compliance with the Vienna Convention. It should be noted that the analytical stamps of the commentators interceded here rather than the text itself. Indeed, on October 26, the response of the spokesperson of the US Department of Foreign Affairs, Ned Price, to the question “Has the USA really backed down?”, is quite clear: “We are confirming that the announcement that we did on October 18 is compliant with Article 41 of the Vienna Convention. We are determined in our commitment of the defense of the respect for human rights, the rule of law  in global scale. This is a commitment without any hesitation and we will continue our dialogue with Turkey in compliance with Article 41 of the Vienna Convention. The spokesperson is replying to the question “Would you repeat the announcement on October 18 if necessary?” as that the announcement contains universal principles and commitments from the USA point of view. In brief: the USA is standing behind the announcement. According to the news reflected on the press, after Erdogan’s threat to declare the ambassadors as  persona non grata, Ibrahim Kalin and Mevlut Cavusoglu contacted the US embassy to reduce the tension, and a way out was found that Erdogan would accept.

The main question here is: since Kalin and Cavusoglu who contacted the embassy, what was offered to the USA in exchange of the message of Vienna Convention? What kind of a negotiation took place? I think we will know about it in the coming days. The outburst of the EuroAsianist supporter of the government, Dogu Perincek, is quite to the point: “It is not a back step. It is referencing the Vienna Convention. There is nothing such as this. Is there any statement here about that they themselves violated the Vienna Convention? There is nothing. Look there is a plot here. They are backing down, but by getting my honorable president Tayyip Erdogan to back down do you realise what is after backing down? There is a rift. I mean behind him, when he takes a step back Honorable Tayyip Erdogan, there is a cliff there.”