Israel’s ground operation in Gaza and the boomerang effect

With no let-up in its attacks on Gaza, Israel has killed over 8,000 civilians, including more than 5,000 women and children. Living conditions for the two million inhabitants here are deteriorating constantly, with extremely limited amounts of aid getting through Israel’s embargo. Visual analysis conducted by the New York Times has documented that the massacre in which some 500 civilians perished at Al-Ahli Hospital on 17 October was caused, contrary to Netanyahu and US President Biden’s claims, by an Israeli-fired rocket. Calling for the evacuation of hospitals where thousands of civilians have taken refuge, Israel has openly proclaimed that there will be no limit to its aggression.

Israel’s ground movements in recent days, on top of its air raids, invite the question that has been on everyone’s lips since 7 October of whether a ground operation will be launched. However, not only has absolutely no official announcement about the launching of a ground operation been forthcoming from the Israel Defence Forces, but it is apparent that these ground movements are currently limited in scope to the Gaza border area.

It is beyond doubt that the major reason Israel has not yet been able to conduct its announced ground operation is that such an operation would be cloaked in uncertainty and risk.

Above all, with it highly probable that such a ground operation would result in the deaths of the bulk of the 222 hostages held by Hamas, Netanyahu is concerned that this would further stoke up the anger of Israeli society towards his government. With 65% of the Israeli population supporting a ground operation in the initial polls that were conducted, the recent fall of this percentage to below thirty shows that such concerns are not unfounded. One consequence of the events of recent weeks has also been the dawning realization among wider sections of Israeli society that if the Palestinians are not safe, they will not be safe either.

However, the basic concern of Israel’s biggest supporter, the USA, stems from the risks such an operation would pose to its regional interests rather than how Israeli society will react.

US imperialism, which is sending fresh warships to the Eastern Mediterranean in a military build-up, wants to enhance deterrence against anti-Israel regional actors, not least Iran and Lebanon’s Hezbollah, in the aftermath of Israel’s ground operation and prevent the Gaza war from triggering a regional war.

The following points must be considered with regard to why the US wants Israel to restrict this war to Hamas and not take steps that will provoke other regional actors.

First, the chain of events that unfurled on 7 October has had a devastating effect on the US’s moves toward “normalization” between Israel and the collaborative regimes in the region that it has been promoting.

The basic goal of the “Agreement of the Century” Trump proclaimed in 2020 was to stop the Palestinian question acting as an impediment between Israel and the collaborative regimes in the region. Even though this plan was based on a symbolic Palestinian statelet lacking even an army, rather than a two-state solution, the UAE, Bahrain, Sudan, and Morocco signed “normalization agreements” (the Abraham Accords) with Israel, and Saudi Arabia embarked on diplomatic negotiations to this end. To this, another important regional actor, the Erdoğan regime in Turkey, must be added. Wishing to turn its attention towards the Asia-Pacific so as to halt China’s rise, the US had made significant strides in the direction of uniting the collaborative regimes in the region and Israel around its political-military axis. Hence, the US does not now want the war in Gaza to escalate to the extent of reversing this process.

Secondly, Russia's invasion of Ukraine, in particular, has strengthened NATO with new members and military bases. The Putin administration has also suffered serious damage. The potential for the war in Gaza and the massacre of Palestinians to dispel this atmosphere also makes US imperialism ponder. This is because developments are gradually overturning the reaction initially created by Hamas's attack. On one hand, there is increasing outrage throughout the world at Israel's massacres. On the other hand, the world's attention is shifting from Ukraine to the region.

Certainly, the forces within the "axis of resistance", mainly Iran and Lebanon's Hezbollah, are reluctant to enter such a regional conflict. This conflict will also take a serious toll on them. However, nobody doubts that Israel's potentially hugely destructive operation against Gaza will increase the risk of involving these forces in the war.

At this point, it needs to be said that the Erdoğan administration's political stance has shifted from calls for "moderation" to setting itself up as a "mediator" and "guarantor". Later, it came out as Hamas's greatest supporter. We can treat this shift in the Erdoğan administration's stance as a raising of the stakes following the abject failure of attempts to grab a regional role/position. This is because Erdoğan, who has not cut off relations and treaties with Israel despite the repulsion of the people of Turkey and the region towards Israel, wishes to bring this repulsion under his control and turn it into a bargaining chip.

On the other hand, Erdoğan, mindful of the US bases in Syria, even while opposing Israel's attacks on Gaza, also considers it possible to make a new operation against Rojava part of this bargaining.

In conclusion, Israeli occupation and aggression, which even UN Secretary-General Guterres has identified as the basic source of the problem, are increasing the risks for Israel's greatest supporter, US imperialism, and regional reactionaries. These reactionaries, even if they appear to support the Palestinian cause, continue to collaborate with Israel and the US. Currently, the uncertainties and risks that this operation may boomerang on both Israel and the US and the collaborative regimes in the region constitute the biggest obstacle to a ground operation involving the occupation of Gaza that Israel initially announced.

(Translated by Tim Drayton)