Idlib Operation: The end in Syria

The operation launched by the Syrian army in Idlib, which is the last stronghold of Islamist groups supported by Turkey, can bring an end to Turkey’s Syria adventure. As it is known, after the meeting held in Astana, with the participation of Iran, Russia, and Turkey, Idlib was declared to be 'de-conflict zone' and that Turkey had sent 500 soldiers to Idlib as the guarantor-observer status. A part of the Idlib, which is the last bastion of radical Islamist groups except for ISİD in Syria, is in the hands of groups supported by Turkey, and another part of Idlib is in the hand of al-Qaeda's Syrian part, al Nusra, which is the continuation of Trustees Tahrir el Damascus (HTS). While sending soldiers to Idlib, Turkey made an agreement with HTS, and these 500 soldiers were placed in the north of the Kurdish canton on the Afrin border. This is because, although the task in Idlib was ‘to observe de-conflict', the only purpose of power in Turkey was to make an operation in Afrin as it can be understood from statements made by President Erdogan. That is to say, Turkey was considering ‘Idlib 'mission' as an opportunity for Afrin operation.

But things did not go as expected. As we have written many times before, although Russia had used Turkey as a means of pressure on Syrian Kurds and it was basically a permission to the Euphrates Shield operation, it wouldn’t consent to a conflict (Turkey's Afrin operation), which will jeopardy the control it has largely in Syria today. Moreover, after the USA’s decision to walk with the Syrian Democratic Forces led by the Kurds, Russia has seen that Turkey has no other place to go to. Russia has not only used Turkey as a pressure on Kurds but also used Turkey’s relationship with Islamist groups in Aleppo and then when the time comes in Idlib to take these groups under control, turning this into an opportunity for liquidation.

Here Idlib operation, which was launched by the Syrian army with Russia's air support, is announcing that Russia has reduced the need for Turkey and therefore not only radical Islamist groups also Turkey’s existence in Syria is approaching to an end. The fact that President Erdogan, who started to say "Esad" again instead of 'Esed' to the President of Syria in the last November, and Erdogan's explanation of "Politics is always open," returning to the "terrorist Assad" discourse after the start of İdlib operation of the Syrian army, is nothing but the expression of a desperate situation.

Recently, there have been developments, showing that Turkey will encounter Russia more and more as the United States in the field, thus it will bring an end to the road to walk with Russia. Turkey, which sees Idlib operations by the Syrian army as a violation of the Agreement Astana, warned Russia and Iran's ambassador by calling the Ministry of Foreign Affairs to Turkey. But more importantly, on the 31st December and 6th January, Hmeymim Airbase in Latakia, Russia, was attacked with missiles and UAVs, and Russia found that UAVs used in the attack departed from regions in Idlib under Turkey's supervision. After these developments, Russian sources express that the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Russia has sent a warning letter to Chief of General Staff, Hulusi Akar, and Undersecretary of Intelligence Service, Hakan Fidan.
In summary, after the Aleppo, the process of liquidation of radical Islamist groups began in İdlib, as well. This process will most probably bring several important implications for Turkey. The reason for that is this operation, which has a 'military cleaning' meaning prior to a political solution in Syria, points that the military presence of Turkey in Syria will increasingly become a discussion topic and in this respect, pointing a process in which Turkey will encounter Russia more. Moreover, liquidation of the Islamist group supported by Turkey and HTS in Idlib on the border of Hatay, also means that these groups will be trouble for Turkey. It makes the country an open target for Islamist terrorist attacks again. As a result of these developments, in domestic politics, exemption from punishment for civils supported by ruling force and the claim of “training camps”, and Erdogan ruling’s decision of cooperating with MHP declare that the ruling will exacerbate pressure and tension in the country as the ruling force gets stuck in foreign policy. Therefore, there is no other way for the popular forces to stop the one man regime in order to prevent from being dragged into new disasters both inside and outside.