Turkey-Greece: War or peace?

Hard-hitting rhetoric flies in both directions. Saying, “If Turkey ends its provocations the negotiations start,” Greek Prime Minister K. Mitsotakis goes on: “We are prepared to negotiate territorial water borders in the Aegean Sea and Eastern Mediterranean but will not do this under threat. End the threats so negotiations can start.” Erdoğan replies with threats: “They will either understand through the language of politics and diplomacy, or they will understand through the bitter experiences they will endure on the ground.”

Not just the rhetorical language is hard hitting. The linguistic toughness is equally present in practice. Exercises follow mutual NAVTEXes. First Greece holds exercises with Cyprus, then France or even Italy, which stands close to Turkey in Libya, join in. The US cannot be said to have taken part, but the aircraft carrier Eisenhower is known to be in the area.  

Subsequently, Turkey starts a “joint” exercise with the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus.

Germany appears willing to intermediate but comes out in support of EU-members Greece and Cyprus. Russia is trying to squeeze out what gains it can. It benefits to the extent that Turkey moves away from its Western allies, and it follows the policy of playing to both galleries.

The tug of war between the two countries is intensifying. The balance of power between Turkey and Greece is in Turkey’s favour but you do not have Turkey at one end of the rope and Greece at the other. Greece has assembled the EU, and especially France, behind it and, with it having procured tacit American support, Turkey finds itself isolated. However, regardless of who is behind them, it is beyond dispute that the two countries’ peoples will be the first to suffer harm in a conflict. And conflict cannot be said to be beyond the bounds of possibility.

Hands have yet to reach for the trigger, but the mutual build-up of arms continues unabated. Forward positions are being maintained. A Greek warship got into a scrape with a Turkish exploration ship but this went no further. However, the same could transpire again and this time escalate. Or the two rivals could come into aerial confrontation and a “dog fight” could end in “accident”.  For, not only is the build-up being intensified on both sides, but there is no reduction in the volume of the rhetoric or the pumping up of domestic political nationalism. On the contrary, the aid of nationalist prejudices is clearly being sought in domestic politics. The drums of war keep beating away!

The issue is not the Dodecanese, made eighteen in number with six additions and ceded to Greece under the Treaty of Lausanne, or even the continental shelf and exclusive economic zones (EEZ). The Dodecanese have not been a problem for decades so why should they be now? But they are. They are being armed while supposed to be disarmed – is this deemed a problem? So, why are they being armed now or why is the objection coming now? The continental shelf is a long-standing problem. Why it has flared up just now is important. Why did Turkey first sign an agreement with Libya, declare an EEZ and then came Greece’s EEZ agreement signed with Egypt? Why now?

The reply is a no-brainer: because natural gas has recently been discovered in the Eastern Mediterranean and a high valuation has now been placed on the once scarcely regarded region. There was talk of “our islands” and the “Blue Motherland” and the continental shelf issue attained importance. There is gas beneath the entire Eastern Mediterranean!

Regardless of whose sovereignty it falls under, there will be nothing “autonomous and national” about the gas to be extracted! There are giant international energy monopolies with which agreements have either been signed as of now or which are present in the region. Like Italian ENI, American Exxon Mobil, Russian Novatek or French Total. Let either Greece or Turkey move into action, headed if they like by Hellenic Petroleum or TPAO, they will at most process it in partnership with Mobil, Total or another international monopoly. But a few tasty morsels will nevertheless pass to Greek or Turkish collaborative monopolies. And the Greek or Turkish peoples? Will they get a share, small as it may be? Will they benefit even by a few pennies from the tasty morsels coming to the bourgeois? The answer is no. Nothing! Have no petrol or minerals been discovered in Turkey and Greece until now, are there no factories and banks? Which of them has given a few pennies to its own country’s workers and wage earners? Even in the epidemic, they gave loans with interest. 

There is not a pennyworth of benefit for the peoples from the tension.

Imperialists, get out of our region with your ships and bases!

Bourgeois rulers of the two countries, do not take the workers for granted and get cocky, but sit down and reach mutual agreement!

Peace will come to the working peoples!