The suspended minister: Who was he useful for?

Suspended bread [campaign - bread pre-paid by someone and left for those who cannot afford it].

Suspended tablets to support the efforts of distance learning.

And now a suspended minister!

People in Turkey have been left in mystery over the speculations surrounding the [now former] Minister for Treasury and Finance Berat Albayrak’s resignation. The people who have waited for hours to seek an answer to the question whether Minister Albayrak has ‘resigned or not’, have been left ‘suspended'.

Although there has been a lack of clarity for hours regarding the resignation, one thing is crystal clear. Those who were left waiting are part of a whole. There is a visible link between the system which left the minister suspended and the masses which are being left without bread and without education.

***

Before exploring the links between those that were left suspended or waiting, there is a need to evaluate the circumstances leading to the resignation.

The evaluation will look at three different factors.

The first factor is technical, it involves ‘economic decisions’ and assignments.

The second contributory factor is linked to the bigger issues within the government, this has added a new strand to the small crisis which has been culminating within the government for some time. The culmination of these small crises is making the tensions within the government more prevalent and is showing the pitfalls of the autocratic rule.

Thirdly, the evaluation will focus on the root cause of the crisis and aim to offer a solution.

THE SIGNALS WERE THERE

It was said that the minister was revolutionising the economy.

He was seen as the ‘revolutionary force’ reconstructing the weakened Turkish Lira only a few weeks ago. What had happened in this short space of time that Minister Albayrak had found himself in such a dilemma? He expressed this dilemma using a Turkish proverb which describes the situation he is in as "horses trail has been mixed with the dogs trail". This simply means that the minister has found himself in a situation which is so confusing that he cannot differentiate good from bad.

Let’s start our analysis by looking at the technical issues.

The Chief [Erdogan] is on the outlook against raising the interest rates. The central bank is refrained from increasing the rates. However, the banks current reserves are not sufficient to meet its financial obligations for the year ahead. There seems to be a strong economic and financial dependency.

In such an economic situation, raising the ‘interest’ rate is a tool to solve problems. Minister Albayrak is also aware of this. As a matter of fact, he had faced a similar situation in 2017, when he came to office, he offered to solve the issues by ordering the central bank to raise the interest rates.

Now…

Murat Uysal, who was made redundant last week from his position as the head of the central bank, declared that "the prices are rising due to the difference in exchange rates. The Turkish Lira has become extremely weak. The markets have lost trust in the central bank".

This declaration was paving the way for an interest rise. It also echoed the words of Albayrak, who had said that "if we want we can reduce the exchange rate (by raising the interest rates)".

Besides......

During the latest meeting of the central bank (22.10.20) it was said that the head of the central bank has agreed with Minister Albayrak over the necessity of a rate increase.

First Mr Uysal was made redundant. He was replaced by Mr Naci Agbal, with whom Minister Albayrak is known to be in a row.

BUILDING INTERNAL TENSIONS AND THE FLAWS OF ‘ONE MAN’ RULE

Resignation is of course a reflection of a long standing issues which were unresolved!

Change of ministers…

Davutoğlu and Babacan's break ups from the government [two prominent cabinet ministers who went to their own sperate ways and have founded their own separate parties]…

Have all culminated in the resignation.

[…]

As the economic tensions and risks were sidelined the tensions within the party continued to rise.

It was hoped that the establishment of the ‘presidential system’ will resolve the tensions but it failed!

Then it was hoped that ‘once the presidential system is settled’ things will get better. However, tensions continued to build creating further pressures.

President Erdogan's refusal to accept the earlier resignation of Suleyman Soylu, the Interior Minister, who is known to be in a power struggle with Mr Albayrak, not only postponed the issues within the party but weakened the President's rule.

***

The current situation is looking very bleak. The Turkish Lira has reached its weakest levels, the unemployment figures are rocketing, the negative impact of the pandemic across the economy has forced the country to ‘feel bleak winters’ in midst of Autumn.

The issues experienced in foreign policy, the blockages in internal policy......

The power struggles and internal tensions has caused the tensions to heighten within the party....

Mr Albayrak’s resignation is only a small fraction of the tremors to come.

Prior to the odd resignation which was announced on social media... it was revealed that if Mr Albayrak continued to hold his office, then 30-40 AKP deputies would resign and join the DEVA or the Gelecek Party [founded by Babacan and Davutoglu respectively]...

However, his resignation is aimed at being perceived as the actions of an independent bureaucrat...

There is also the possibility that he was asked to resign by a family member within the palace on the grounds that he is not able to deliver a good job....

It is highly likely that the tensions will calm down temporarily until the next wave of tremor, which can come any moment.

***

It has been proven once again that an autocratic rule which is centred around “power” leaves no space for ‘rationality’ or ‘productivity’.

Decisions which were made ‘in a rush’ has bought more chaos than good.

For example…

We had learnt about the decision to place 31 cities into lockdown just two hours before it was due to come into force.

Hence we all ran to the food stores and turned them into a virus heaven. It later emerged that the scandalous decision was made solely by Erdogan not by the scientific advisory groups. This was reinforced by the Interior Minister Soylu’s declaration that ‘under the instructions of our President’.

The decision which impacted the future and wellbeing of thousands of youngsters was also reached like this.

The dates for the secondary school and university exams were moved forward. The youngsters who were due to sit these exams went to social media to express their dissatisfaction.

It was Mr Erdogan who announced the decision to bring forward the exam dates.

We have seen these rushed decisions before. However, we have not seen the same response rate when we questioned why there was not enough masks and the reasons behind the resignation.

What we have witnessed and things which we have not seen have given us enough insight about the current system.

The pandemic and the economic crisis have served to deepen the class struggles and have forced many to questions the government's actions… In light of these developments we should not lose our focus by looking at the internal struggles within the government but rather consider and focus on what the future beholds for us.