In 2021 Erdogan will spend most of his time dealing with USA and EU!

2021 commenced with an increase in price of electricity (5 percent), natural gas (1 percent), bridges and highways (25-26 percent).

In terms of domestic politics; bans, Demirtas, Kavala cases, appointment of administrators on community organisations, headscarves and the opening of Hagia Sophia remerged on agenda... President Erdogan continued his smears against the opposition, without a day's break, he showed that he would continue his strategy of crushing the opposition in the new year.

But one of the most important developments in the move from 2020 to 2021 was in relation to foreign policy.

As 2020 ended, on December 30, Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu reviewed the US – Turkey relations at the "end-of-year press briefing".

As Minister Cavusoglu evaluated relations with the United States; "The sanctions decision is wrong, in 2021 we are ready to move relations forward with the new administration. I hope that the new administration will have this understanding,"  he said, "The  issue of the S-400 was always on the agenda. A joint working group with the United States has been established for the S-400s, technical negotiations have begun," he said, heralding this latest development as good news of the positive trajectory in relations with the United States!

WHAT DID CAVUSOGLU MEAN?

However, this statement was immediately denied by the United States, which is not often seen in diplomacy.

A spokesman for the US State Department said there was no working group on S-400 sanctions and F-35s. "There are routine working-level consultations on the impact of sanctions on existing mutual military cooperation. However, this is not a joint working group," said a spokesperson for the US State Department, and didn’t refrain from saying "we agree on the full implementation of the sanctions announced by Pompeo on December 14th." 

The statements of Minister Cavusoglu and a spokesman for the US State Department are very important, perhaps because they contain short but reciprocal messages.

First lets see what Cavusoglu means.

Minister Cavusoglu said in his "end of year reviews" that the so-called "Eyyy America" days are behind us, instead they have come to a point of solving problems by discussing them, and they wish the Biden administration to be on the same page. Cavusoglu also announced something that did not happen, saying, "A joint working group has been formed with the United States for the S-400s".

If Cavusoglu, makes it look like  "something happened even though it did not", he did not do it for misinformation or public deception. Therefore, Cavusoglu's statement about the S-400 means;  "we are ready for a negotiation on the S-400s, in which we will finally say yes to the wishes of the United States. Let's create a workgroup for that. In the end, we will solve whatever the U.S. says."

2021 WILL BE A YEAR IN WHICH 'STICK' WILL STAND OUT AND 'CARROT' WILL BE CONDITIONALLY ACTIVATED

Undoubtedly, "Forming a working group" is typical of US diplomacy, bringing the other side to the negotiation table regardless of the issue. We have seen this clearly in Turkey's military operations in Syria.

Cavusoglu knows this, so "a working group has been established to discuss the S-400". But the U.S. side refuses to make such a suggestion, which Cavusoglu probably didn't expect this time!

The attitude of the US administration says; "The issue of the S-400 is no longer a matter for us to be resolved through negotiations. After you announce that you have completely disabled the S-400s, we can talk about lifting sanctions."

This attitude of USA;

On the first day of 2021, the US Senate adopted the Department of Defence budget for a second time, including CAATSA sanctions against Turkey, defusing Trump's veto, less than three weeks before Biden takes the White House seat, considering that the EU expects US sanctions to determine the extent of sanctions against Turkey in the Eastern Mediterranean crisis, especially when biden is awaiting his inauguration. Therefore, 2021 seems to be a year in which the "stick" will come to the fore and the "carrot"will be activated according to the effect of the stick and conditionally in the "carrot-stick" policy, where both parties are not refusing to deny.

AN ALLY COUNTRY TO BE BROUGHT INTO LINE THROUGH SANCTIONS

Since it was revealed that the Turkish central bank holds a "minus $50 billion", we have been watching the spokesmen of the one-man administration, in particular Erdogan, started to talk like an American and European "muhibi" (lover) when it comes to foreign policy, while it continues to do politics on the ground of religion and nationalism in relation to domestic politics.

If the saying is right, Erdogan's administration has arrived at the walls that it will crash into, in relation to its new Ottomanist, expansion mission in Syria, Libya, eastern Mediterranean, Caucasus and Balkans. As a matter of fact, in the last five or six years, when he was dragged into Syria, he followed it with Libya but when he couldn’t progress any further in Libya he went into Eastern Mediterranean and he when couldn’t get any results there to he ended up in Caucasus.

As a result of the new Ottomanist, expansionist foreign policy, countries in the region saw Turkey as a "threat", while for the imperialists who intervened in the region, western imperialism was dragged into the position of a country that is brought into line with “sanctions” if not with “investments”.  

In short, it is already clear that 2021 will be a year for the Erdogan administration in which Turkey will have a very difficult relations with the USA and the EU.

Once Biden takes the seat as the US president and the decisions that will be taken in relation to sanctions at the EU summit in March will show the level of difficulty of US and EU relations with Erdogan's administration.