The 5 issues awaiting Turkey-US relations during the Biden administration

Çağrı SARI

Turkey - US relations have entered a new phase with the inauguration of President Joe Biden.

With Donald Trump having lost the presidential election, Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan sent his congratulatory message to Joe Biden, despite being relatively late to do so in comparison to other world leaders. His statement emphasized that Turkey has rooted ties with the US and expressed a request to ‘turn a new page for the relations between the two countries’. Erdogan's statements have heightened the rhetoric "Turkey is turning its face to the West again" and "Ankara is preparing for Biden".

During the Presidency of Donald Trump, the Pastor Andrew situation occurred and the purchase of S-400’s caused sanctions for Turkey. However, it is known that the relations between Trump and Erdogan were more "normal" than in many periods, and relations will be more difficult during the Biden administration. Both Turkey and the US have expectations in order for the (metaphorical) distance between the two to close.

So which files are on the table?

S-400 CRISIS

One of the most important problems in relations with the US in recent years is Turkey's purchase of Russian made S-400 air defence systems. Under the leadership of Biden, this issue appears to become one of the most difficult ones for relations between Turkey and the US. Days before Biden took over the Presidency, Erdogan announced that negotiations with Russia on the second delivery were ongoing. While Erdogan’s statements show Turkey's approach towards the new US administration, a statement was also made by Biden's Foreign Secretary nominee Antony Blinken, on the day of the presidential handover ceremony. Speaking of Turkey as a "so-called strategic partner", Blinken said that the new sanctions need to be reviewed. The mutual statements are indications of how the bilateral relations will be with regard to the S-400 problem.

THE US SUPPORT FOR THE SYRIAN DEMOCRATIC FORCES (SDF)

From the perspective of Turkey, the fundamental issue is that the continuous military-political support of the SDF by American troops is reason for crisis for Ankara. Ankara wants the People's Protection Unit (YPG) within the SDG to be identified as a terrorist organization by the United States. While Turkey's demand is big, a political change from the US is not expected. The US does not deny that there is a relationship between the PKK and the YPG, in fact, it is argued that the fight against ISIS has been successful due to this structure.  In addition, the Biden administration's Foreign Secretary nominee, Antony Blinken, is known as the architect of the US Syrian policy (2013). While arming the YPG against ISIS, Blinken argued for increased US contributions, outside Syria, for enhancing Turkey’s fight against the PKK. It is noteworthy that US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin was one of the architects of the policy of supporting YPG as a local partner during his time as US Central Forces Commander (CENTCOM).

EXTRADITION OF FETHULLAH GÜLEN

One of the issues that create tension between Turkey and US is the extradition of Fethullah Gulen and his team, who live in the US. No change is expected in this regard during the Biden administration period. During the July 15 coup attempt, Barack Obama was President and Joe Biden was the Vice President. Biden visited Ankara at the time (during the most intense period of debate on Gülen's extradition).

Biden wrote a special article for Milliyet newspaper before the visit. He stated that "Within the framework of the governance system in the US, where the executive and judicial bodies have separate and independent roles, this is clearly not possible. In fact, any attempt to do so would be illegal." It is estimated that the Biden administration will not change its attitude towards Gülen's extradition.

THE HALKBANK CASE

Due to the Halkbank lawsuit in the United States, Turkey is worried about possible economic sanctions. When we briefly take a look at the past to evaluate how the Halkbank case will be concluded during the Biden period, we see that Geoffrey S. Berman, who was appointed as the Attorney General for the Southern District of New York to replace former Attorney General Preet Bharara, who initiated the investigations into Reza Zarrab and Hakan Atilla, was also dismissed by President Trump. During this process, comments were made that President Trump was involved in the case at the request of President Erdoğan.

With Biden, the course of the case could change completely.

The trial date of the Halkbank case in New York, for violating the US sanctions against Iran, is March 1, 2021. Halkbank is being charged on six counts, including bank fraud, conspiracy and money laundering.

RELATIONS WITH RUSSIA, CYPRUS AND LIBYA

The cooperation of Turkey with Russia in conducting regional issues, and establishing "strong ties" between Ankara and Moscow, is likely to attract a response from the US.

The S-400 defence systems along with many issues such as the war in Syria, are areas in which Turkey sides with Russia. Also, Turkey's support for Azerbaijan during the recent conflict with Armenia is considered to be negative step by the US.

Blinken, has previously hinted at Turkey in a statement and said, "Strategic, or the so-called strategic ally, appears to be on the same line with our largest strategic competitor, Russia, and this is unacceptable".

Additionally, throughout the Biden administration, Turkey’s association with Libya and the Eastern Mediterranean manoeuvres, along with the Cyprus issue, are topics which are expected to frequently bring Turkey and the United States face to face.