Is it the end of swaying between Russia and the USA for new Ottomanism?

It has been a month since Biden’s move to office, yet the expected phone call has not been received.

The advisers are moved by each ring in an attempt to deliver the ‘good news’ but time and again it is not the expected call from Biden!

The ruler at the palace is heard to be saying, “He has called the leader of the United Arab Emirates and the Saudis amongst many other leaders. Even the ones we have not heard much of but he failed to call its strategic partner for over 70 years”.

After commencing office, Biden has called the leaders of the ‘Allied’ countries except Erdoğan, and it may seem like an impolite gesture but in fact it carries deeper implications around Biden administration's displeasure at Turkish Politics.

Furthermore, the Biden administrations promise of “returning to Nuclear Agreement” with Iran but only swiftly commenting on Turkey’s operation at Gare (norhernIraq) by saying, “if Turkey’s claims are accurate” is another indication of the new administration's stance on Turkey. 

THE BIDEN ADMINISTRATION SEEMS SET ON FINE TUNING THE ERDOGAN GOVERNMENT

If we disregard the fact that Erdogan was one of the closest allies of Trump and that he was amongst one of the last leaders to call to congratulate Biden on his success, Erdogan government's attempts to win over the NATO and the West through their promises of loyalty may carry some weight of conviction.

The reminder that Turkey is the USA’s naturally strategic ally, the declarations that, “Our path and direction faces the West”,  and the messages sent through NATO of “We have no issues which cannot be resolved through talks”, or the warm messages expressed by Erdogan towards Biden, “I have known Biden for a long time. We have dined together. He has visited my house” are all attempts by the government to convince the new administration of their changed stance. They want to show that they are now respectful of the West and the NATO.

Furthermore, the Defence Minister Hulusi Akar has raised implications that the issue of S-400 which has caused tension between two countries over the recent years will be resolved by Turkey making a compromise on their previous declarations. Mr Akar has said in a statement given to reporters on 9th of February that, “The S-400 dispute will follow the model of Girit” which in theory a declaration of them being withdrawn.

However, the Biden administration refused to take any notice of this declaration. So much so that, they have said, “There is not a problem to talk about. Turkey must resolve this issue by its own means’. This again, showed the administrations consistent approach to Turkish Politics.

However, the Erdoğan administration continued its persistence, via a video message which was aired on TASC TV. Erdogan said“We believe that our joint benefits outweigh any differences we may have with the USA. We want to strengthen our relationships further with the Biden administration. We will continue our efforts to maintain the strategic and allied relationship we have held by doing what we can on our part”. The declaration showed that Mr Erdogan will not give up knocking on the new administration's door until they come around.

THE RELATIONSHIP WITH PUTIN IS ALSO AT STRAIN

The Erdogan administration is not only experiencing issues with the Biden administration. A similar situation also exists with Putin of Russia. 

Yet, only six months ago, Putin and Erdogan used to have regular telephone conversations and ad hoc personal meetings. However, this has changed and the couple have not had a telephone conversation in months.

Not long ago, the government propagandists would have reported on such telephone conversations with great detail, almost as thought it was a personal face to face meeting! However, there is no sign of such reports in the past few months.

In addition, we can see that Putin has changed its political rota in the Middle East away from Turkey, and towards the UAE, Saudi and Israel.

Over the past few years, Russia has come across Turkey in places like Syria, Libya and Ukraine. The Putin government has come to reach the conclusion that it is difficult to find a common ground with Turkey over such matters and Turkey’s  recent declarations in support of the West has caused the relationship between both governments to break apart.

‘ARE THE PLANS OVER GOING TO THE MOON IN 2021 A REFLECTION OF NEW OTTOMANS' WAY OUT PLANS?

The Erdogan administration's relationships are not only sore with the new Biden administration but they have also come to an end with Russia whom they have knocked for help each time they acquired a trouble within the past decade.  

The new Ottomanist foreign policy, which was inspired by Sultan Abdulhamid, tried to benefit from the contradictions of two dominant imperialist forces in the region, the USA and Russia. However, this swaying between two powers seems to have come to an end. 

For this reason, we can see that the government's reluctance over carrying out new operations in Syria, identifying new targets in Libya, starting hydrocarbon excavations to the south of the island of Cyprus, declaration of NAVTEX in the Aegean Sea in a race with Greece. Nor have we heard slogans which served to encourage widening of power such as “from the Caucasus to the Balkans”.

Hence, Erdogan's announcement that “We are going to the Moon in 2023” as a new goal is no more than the admittance of there is no path for new Ottomanism, and that the Moon  can be seen as an "escape goal".

At the time of writing this piece, Biden is yet to call Erdogan!