Political Scientist Sinan Birdal: Ukraine's future may look like Cyprus

Birkan BULUT
Ankara

Commenting on the Istanbul meeting between Ukraine and Russia, Political Scientist and Universal Author Sinan Birdal stated that Ukraine has acknowledged its weakness with its concessions. Noting that developments regarding Russia's presence in Ukraine are like Cyprus, Birdal said, "Turkey has experienced a certain isolation regarding Cyprus, and from time to time negotiations have been brought before international politics. Not even Azerbaijan does. However, it has had a military and administrative presence on the island for 50 years."

During the Istanbul meeting of the Ukrainian and Russian delegations, Ukraine demanded an international security guarantee in exchange for neutrality status. The Russian delegation said they would forward to Putin the offer of many countries to be guarantors for Ukraine's security. Turkey was mentioned among these countries, and Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said the most meaningful progress was made in this meeting. So what happens next at the stage of Russia's invasion of Ukraine? What does Turkey's role in this process mean?

TURKEY SEES IT AS A LASTING OPPORTUNITY

Commenting on the developments in our newspaper, Sinan Birdal, Political Scientist and Author of our Newspaper, commented on Turkey's position as follows: "When the Ukraine crisis broke out, there were comments that Erdogan would be in a difficult situation. I thought it was the other way around. Because historically, every tension between Russia and The Good and Transatlantik increases Turkey's geopolitical value. Since the end of the cold war, Turkey has been seeking a new geopolitical mission. Therefore, he was involved in projects that would increase his bargaining share within the transatlantic alliance. During the AKP's time, openings were made to the Balkans and the Middle East. I think this anxiety has decreased for Turkey. This was an opportunity for erdogan's government from the beginning." Birdal  also noted that in the process, the United States has made the S-400s or Russia's Bayraktar WMDs an issue.

RUSSIA TRIES TO CHANGE OFFENSIVE IMAGE

Russia uses diplomatic and military means at the same time, Birdal said, stressing that it is important to look at political goals. Russia's acceptance of Erdogan as a mediator in both Israeli Prime Minister Bennet and Turkey is a tactical manoeuvre, Birdal said. Because after international sanctions, moves that neutralize even those sympathetic to Russia or push them to take a stand, Russia has to soften the mood. It has also been very clear at the United Nations that Russia's image as an aggressive state is established. Russia must show that it is open to negotiations to support its claim that it carried out this operation to protect the Russian minority. But that doesn't mean he'll give up military action. Because Russia's hand is strong and ukraine's announcement that it will not be a member of NATO is a success for them."

CONTINUES TO EXIST IN CYPRUS

Birdal also said that a referendum is planned in the Donbass region, which will perpetuate Russia’s population and influence on the ground. With the annexation of Crimea, there will be a de facto situation that the international community does not recognize legally. This means that in the medium term at least, it will achieve its political goals." Noting that there may be a parallel between the Ukraine and Cyprus operation, Birdal added: "What happened in the end? Turkey has experienced a certain isolation regarding Cyprus, and from time to time negotiations have been brought before it in international politics. Not even Azerbaijan does. However, it has had a military and administrative presence on the island for 50 years. Again, the Republic of Cyprus is a member of the EU but not a member of NATO." Such a situation is an important concession for Ukraine, Birdal said, adding that Ukraine has accepted its weakness in these talks by making serious concessions. Noting that Russia could use its diplomatic gains as a result of the war in war for a new diplomatic gain, Birdal said Russia could make heavier moves on the ground to strengthen its hand.