THE TRUTH OF LIFE DEFEATS THE STATE
Bülent FALAKAOĞLU
It has not been long since the general elections which caused serious resentment and bitterness among a significant part of the electorate. Erdoğan seemed to be at ease at first, relying on the opposition's division and lack of morale after the May elections.
So what happened to create a big wave, and for the Palace regime, which seemed so formidable, to receive a heavy blow?
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Before the answers, let's pause for a reminder.
The results of the general elections, although strengthening the hand of the government, which is steering towards fascism, were a victory for the Cumhur Alliance.
Erdoğan was aware of this even that day.
That’s why he made a balcony speech that was not inclusive at all; he used a harsh tone and sent the message that his policies would continue to harden.
The ‘economic’ and ‘political’ problems had deepened... And he had to resort to violence and economic pressure even more to govern.
These facts are now in the open.
ECONOMY HIT
In this election, 85 percent of voters said that the most important problem was the economy.
The situation of pensioners was prioritized over any local government project. Based on this, it was determined that “whoever gets the support or reaction of pensioners will win”.
Moreover, the economic confidence index was falling.
The data so far showed that... Entering the local elections with consumer confidence below 80 would cause the government to lose.
Indeed, the index was below 80; the bells were ringing for the government!
The economy, which was managed last time, could not be managed this time.
EYT... Salary hikes for pensioners, civil servants and public workers.
Loan packages... Money at negative interest rates...
Social assistance accelerated...
The result was one of the highest growth rates in recent years. Employment rose above the long-term trend. Unemployment declined.
When there was not an empty pot, but a slightly boiling pot, the government succeeded.
NONE OF THE MECHANISMS THAT WON THE PREVIOUS ELECTION WORKED
Let’s list the bullet points to be analyzed in detail later.
* This time the cost of living could not be managed; exchange rates are high, inflation is high, the purchasing power of wages and salaries is low. The working masses slapped.
* Tradesmen/Shopkeepers were happy with consumption on cheap credit and increased salaries; they did not distance themselves from the government (the victory of the government in Anatolia was an indication of this), now the tradesmen and small industrialists were broken. Although Anatolia is still painted in AKP’s yellow, the meltdown is great.
* Employment and growth were keeping different segments of capital together, the new interest rate policy broke the ‘win-win’ relationship for some of the capital.
* The government program associated with (Finance Minister) Şimşek led to a slowdown in industrial production and an increase in unemployment. Workers in industrial sectors punished the government.
* Warships, airplanes, drones, TOG... The big development narrative was absent in this election. The poverty of the voters could not be manipulated, they could not be made to say ‘I am hungry but my country’.
The shelf life of the ‘securityist’ policy, which is clearly moving away from being locally useful in 2019, has expired; when the warship does not bring wealth, when the natural gas with reserves does not get cheaper...
* When the challenge to the seven world powers was replaced by cooperation with the US and Israel... Nationalist deception, the important lever of the previous election, disappeared.
* In the general elections, the tactic of portraying Kurdish votes as 'cooperation with terrorism' and frothing nationalism also worked. This time, including the "no vote, no service" campaigns, montages, fabricated documents, fake posters, etc. all backfired.
* When the challenge to the world was replaced by cooperation with the US and Israel... Nationalist deception, the important lever of the previous election, disappeared.
* In the general elections, the tactic of portraying Kurdish votes as ‘cooperation with terrorism’ and frothing nationalism also had worked. This time, including the “if no vote, no service” campaigns, montages, fabricated documents, fake posters, etc. all backfired.
WHAT WAS SEEN?
1- As life in big cities became unbearably expensive and rents unaffordable, the reaction in metropolitan areas grew. The government is now much weaker, in places that once were powerful in terms of influence and economy.
2- The decline in the votes for the government in the workers’ cities revealed the widespread anger against austerity.
3- The shift within the ruling party (from AKP to MHP) to the outer ring (YPR) and the opposition accelerated.
4- The class reaction became more visible (part of the vote shift to the YPR is due to this; masses of impoverished loyal labor voters preferred the YRP to the AKP, which was increasingly becoming an Islamist bourgeois party).
5- Even at his election rallies in other provinces, Erdoğan, who asked for votes for Ankara and Istanbul, put himself on the scales and suffered a disastrous defeat; there will be consequences.
6-The resistance of the Kurds could not be broken.
7- The IYI Party burned itself.
8- The two parties that broke away from AKP (DEVA and Gelecek) suffered the penalty of not being able to produce politics and not speaking out against AKP!
Leaving a broader analysis for later, let us emphasize that the Cumhur Alliance, which entered the elections as a ‘state’, was defeated by the realities of life.
