The statements made by various sections of capital on the election results and Erdoğan's balcony speech give important clues about the coming days; about the signs of dissolution already visible under the strong one-man order.
Bülent Falakaoğlu
What kind of future awaits the society and the country?Two developments that we have witnessed in the heat of the moment provide clues to the answer.It is necessary to look at these two developments in addition to the election results!The first one to look at... The statements made by various sections of capital regarding the election results.The second is Erdoğan's balcony speech.These are also flares for what needs to be done!
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Let us start analysing the statements of various segments of capital from the Turkish Exporters' Assembly (TIM).Mustafa Gültepe, President of TIM, said...
"The suppression of the exchange rate despite the high increase in costs since the beginning of the year has damaged the competitiveness of our exporters. We started to experience losses in some markets that we were able to enter with great efforts. We do not tolerate losing markets. We are hopeful for the new period."
The meaning of what he said is as follows...
O government... You said, "We will be the China of Europe; we will become an export base". You liberalised the exchange rate. The minimum wage dropped to 200 dollars. We liked this situation as 'competitive exchange rate'. But then you increased the minimum wage to win the election. You did not allow the exchange rate to rise. The minimum wage is now 400 dollars. This is damaging our competitiveness. Come on, the election is over, do what's necessary!
So, what’s necessary?
Raise the exchange rate first hand. 1 dollar should be 25 TL. Wages should melt 25 per cent.
In other words, competition for exporters and poverty for labourers.
Let's take the second example...
Şekib Avdagiç, President of the İstanbul Chamber of Commerce (ITO), said: "As the Turkish private sector, we will build together the days when new achievements will be added to our gains and development will accelerate like a snowball..."
Yes, small and medium-sized industrialists and tradesmen benefited from the high inflation and low interest rate policy.
But there is no chance for the wheel to turn in the same way. The reserves are exhausted, so, the vault is empty.
Debtors have multiplied. The number of companies that will go bankrupt has increased as banks refuse to give loans and advances.
The result of this process, in which some will lose, will be unemployment for labourers.
ITO also knows that there is no longer a process where everyone will win! It too says 'Save us'.The last example comes from the Union of Chambers and Commodity Exchanges of Turkey (TOBB).
TOBB President Rifat Hisarcıklıoğlu says... "The election period is over. Yesterday is yesterday. Today is the time to say new things."
In summary, he says... It is time for a new policy!
The new policy demanded by TOBB will make some people win and some people lose.
Why did we tell you all this?
The atmosphere of 'happiness' created by the low interest rate, cheap and abundant credit system has come to an end.
What was that happiness?
Despite the increase in inflation rates, consumption-driven domestic demand was quite vigorous. Retail sales were continuing unabated. Consumer confidence was increasing.
The engine was the bank loans available at 20 per cent interest rate when inflation was at 80 per cent.
Although borrowing rates had increased, tradesmen and small and medium-sized enterprise owners, who saw the relative erosion of loan repayments in an inflationary environment, rushed to borrow.People borrowed as much as they could; they rushed to production, investment and consumption.Once, when opposition leaders visited shopkeepers in Anatolia, they were met with great favour... They witnessed the anger of shopkeepers... That image had changed while going into the elections.
The 'angry' and organised class reaction of the tradesmen, whose suffering increased in different regions of Turkey after the pandemic, had now faded, even if not on a mass scale.
At that time, the anger of 'Can the son-in-law be a minister? He must go' was transformed into the consent of the tradesmen and small-medium enterprises again with the low interest rate policy.Interest in the IYI Party, Future and DEVA parties was reduced.
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The wheel, fuelled by salary and wage increases, social benefits, incentives and credits, acted as a glue, especially in Anatolia.
But, it was seen from the first day after the elections, that the effect of this glue would dissolve. The lower level representatives of capital are now playing a different tune for their own benefit!
And let us not forget...
Not all tradesmen and small-medium sized enterprises have the same interests. While exporters say "Let the exchange rate rise", small tradesmen and industrialists, who will no longer be able to find loans, are afraid of the exchange rate increase.
As can be seen, the contradiction is not only between those whose wages will decrease due to the exchange rate increase and those who benefit from it!
These contradictions show that the yellow coloured glue on Anatolia on the election map is doomed to dissolve!
The question is, who will reunite and how.
We saw in his balcony speech...
Erdoğan did not make an inclusive speech at all; he used a harsh tone and gave the message that his policies will continue to harden.
Because Erdoğan is aware!
The 'economic' and 'political' problems have deepened... And in order to govern, he has to resort to violence and economic pressure much more.
And the politics of polarisation and enmity is an important tool.
Booing from the balcony, chants of 'execution'... It is an indication that the way of politicisation during the election period will continue.
What kind of politicisation is this?
It is simple: As seen in all systems tending towards dictatorship, don't discuss anything about fundamental issues, polarise with what the government wants to discuss!Is it very difficult to break this?
Let's leave the answer for later and continue.
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The message of the photo of Erdoğan hand in hand with the leaders with whom he had formed an electoral alliance was clear: The absolute victory of one of the most nationalist-conservative power blocs in the history of Turkey in the elections!
Let us take a closer look at the absolute victory.
The region that provided the bloc's victory image is Central Anatolia!
The subject of victory: Tradesmen and small-medium sized enterprises are the most important social segment that reproduces the nationalist-conservative worldview of the ruling bloc.However, this consent is not independent from the material conditions in which tradesmen can realise their interests. It is obvious that this segment in Turkey has historically reacted collectively when it could not realise its own interests.
AKP has saved the day, but it has also laid the foundation for problems that its voters are likely to regret in the future! That is why the 'unity' is not as strong as it seems.
The issue is not to surrender to the language of separation!
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Erdoğan's awareness is not limited to this...
The following statement in his speech in İstanbul, after the election results became clear, points to another realisation: "Will we win İstanbul back in the local elections?"
This call is because he is aware that he has lost his voter support and melted!
Among those who are leaning more and more towards the opposition, there are also places that were once his strongholds; Eyüp, Beyoğlu, Kağıthane....
In some strongholds, Erdoğan's share of the vote is now below 50 per cent.
In the big cities, high rents, expensive food, the blockage in the health system, which is felt more deeply, etc... It is the labourer and the poor who are no longer affordable.
Yes, the government's 'survival' strategy seems to have worked today. The question is: To what extent is it possible to keep those who are ready to disintegrate with nationalism?
It should be reminded here that the government does not maintain nationalism only through 'cultural' codes.
It reinforces its nationalism not with the discourse of 'great, great race', but with the discourse of 'development' and 'great state ready for occupation'.
It is precisely when this is done that the nationalist discourse turns into gum for the government. The perception of 'domestic and national' production created in the imagination of tradesmen and small-medium sized business owners is reinforced with the domestic car Togg, boron carbide plant and warship, which are passed around like a circumcised child.
However, we have said it before... When the warship does not bring wealth, when the natural gas reserves do not become cheaper, the colour of the work changes!
The war economy, which the government calls the 'national economy', will intensify labour exploitation. As tensions and disagreements increase in the workplaces, that nationalist glue will dissolve.
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The refugee 'love' of the government, which has taken nationalism beyond identity and into the political economy, is not out of brotherhood.
As AKP Deputy Chairman Mehmet Özhaseki said, the issue is monetary: "Refugees are now keeping the industry alive in some cities. Go to Gaziantep industry, hundreds of thousands of people work in the heaviest and most difficult jobs. It is the same in Kayseri industry. They work in jobs where labourers cannot be found. No one can send them away."
They don't need enmity, they need brotherhood, class brotherhood.
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When the election result became clear, some 'partisan' trade unions declared, 'It will also be the century of labour'.
This is not possible in a one-man system. There is no production large enough to meet the needs of this hosier system. In order to feed the system, labour must die!
Uniting those who are going to die - including refugees - would undermine the one-man power that looks like a fortress. Let's fight on this labour ground, not on the ground established by the government, so that the darkness ends!
Yusuf Karadaş
Yücel Özdemir
Ceren Sözeri